Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 20,466
2 New Jersey 19,535
3 Rhode Island 15,870
4 Massachusetts 15,797
5 District of Columbia 14,632
6 Connecticut 13,046
7 Louisiana 12,520
8 Delaware 11,783
9 Illinois 11,415
10 Maryland 11,272
11 Arizona 10,908
12 Nebraska 9,922
13 Iowa 9,239
14 Mississippi 9,155
15 Alabama 7,759
16 South Dakota 7,645
17 Virginia 7,355
18 Georgia 7,278
19 Pennsylvania 7,125
20 Florida 7,096
21 Michigan 7,094
22 South Carolina 7,069
23 Utah 6,975
24 Indiana 6,942
25 Arkansas 6,884
26 Minnesota 6,443
27 Tennessee 6,269
28 North Carolina 6,203
29 Nevada 6,032
30 California 5,875
31 New Mexico 5,793
32 Texas 5,749
33 Colorado 5,677
34 Wisconsin 5,448
35 Kansas 5,021
36 North Dakota 4,704
37 Washington 4,535
38 Ohio 4,430
39 New Hampshire 4,252
40 Missouri 3,629
41 Kentucky 3,562
42 Oklahoma 3,476
43 Idaho 3,426
44 Wyoming 2,569
45 Maine 2,420
46 Puerto Rico 2,337
47 Oregon 2,053
48 Vermont 1,935
49 West Virginia 1,620
50 Alaska 1,547
51 Montana 904
52 Hawaii 636

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Arizona 423
2 Florida 308
3 South Carolina 288
4 Louisiana 238
5 Nevada 236
6 Texas 207
7 Alabama 201
8 Georgia 195
9 Mississippi 192
10 California 174
11 Utah 169
12 Arkansas 162
13 Idaho 150
14 Tennessee 146
15 North Carolina 138
16 Delaware 131
17 Iowa 100
18 Kansas 98
19 Oklahoma 93
20 Wisconsin 84
21 New Mexico 83
22 Minnesota 75
23 Missouri 74
24 Nebraska 72
25 Ohio 66
26 Washington 66
27 Maryland 61
28 Virginia 60
29 Illinois 55
30 Wyoming 54
31 District of Columbia 52
32 Indiana 51
33 North Dakota 51
34 South Dakota 51
35 Alaska 47
36 Pennsylvania 47
37 Rhode Island 47
38 Oregon 44
39 Kentucky 43
40 Puerto Rico 41
41 Colorado 40
42 Montana 35
43 Michigan 34
44 New Jersey 29
45 Connecticut 28
46 New York 25
47 Maine 24
48 West Virginia 22
49 Massachusetts 21
50 New Hampshire 15
51 Hawaii 10
52 Vermont 4

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,692
2 New York 1,633
3 Connecticut 1,212
4 Massachusetts 1,168
5 Rhode Island 896
6 District of Columbia 780
7 Louisiana 692
8 Michigan 620
9 Illinois 563
10 Maryland 527
11 Delaware 522
12 Pennsylvania 522
13 Indiana 392
14 Mississippi 360
15 Colorado 293
16 New Hampshire 272
17 Minnesota 261
18 Georgia 259
19 Ohio 244
20 New Mexico 237
21 Iowa 227
22 Arizona 226
23 Virginia 206
24 Alabama 193
25 Washington 175
26 Missouri 168
27 Nevada 164
28 Florida 163
29 California 153
30 Nebraska 144
31 South Carolina 143
32 Wisconsin 136
33 Kentucky 131
34 North Carolina 129
35 North Dakota 115
36 South Dakota 102
37 Oklahoma 97
38 Kansas 94
39 Arkansas 89
40 Vermont 89
41 Tennessee 87
42 Texas 85
43 Maine 78
44 Utah 53
45 Idaho 51
46 West Virginia 51
47 Oregon 49
48 Puerto Rico 47
49 Wyoming 34
50 Montana 20
51 Alaska 16
52 Hawaii 12

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 New York 11
2 Rhode Island 7
3 Mississippi 4
4 New Jersey 3
5 Alabama 2
6 Arizona 2
7 Louisiana 2
8 Arkansas 1
9 California 1
10 Connecticut 1
11 District of Columbia 1
12 Florida 1
13 Illinois 1
14 Indiana 1
15 Iowa 1
16 Maryland 1
17 Michigan 1
18 Minnesota 1
19 Nebraska 1
20 Ohio 1
21 Pennsylvania 1
22 South Carolina 1
23 Virginia 1
24 Alaska 0
25 Colorado 0
26 Delaware 0
27 Georgia 0
28 Hawaii 0
29 Idaho 0
30 Kansas 0
31 Kentucky 0
32 Maine 0
33 Massachusetts 0
34 Missouri 0
35 Montana 0
36 Nevada 0
37 New Hampshire 0
38 New Mexico 0
39 North Carolina 0
40 North Dakota 0
41 Oklahoma 0
42 Oregon 0
43 Puerto Rico 0
44 South Dakota 0
45 Tennessee 0
46 Texas 0
47 Utah 0
48 Vermont 0
49 Washington 0
50 West Virginia 0
51 Wisconsin 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 131,602 1 99
Lake Tennessee 98,347 2 99
Dakota Nebraska 88,934 3 99
Buena Vista Iowa 86,391 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 79,699 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 14,125 203 93
Richland South Carolina 8,462 490 84
Orange California 4,359 1042 66
York South Carolina 4,285 1058 66
Pierce Washington 3,190 1362 56

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 3,784 1 99
Randolph Georgia 3,688 2 99
Terrell Georgia 3,165 3 99
Early Georgia 3,042 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 2,619 5 99
Richland South Carolina 200 676 78
Davidson Tennessee 163 771 75
Pierce Washington 112 988 68
Orange California 107 1011 67
York South Carolina 43 1532 51

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons